Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ARTERIA Networks Corporation (4423.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,285.66 - $2,113.79$1,654.09
Multi-Stage$4,098.00 - $4,518.92$4,304.28
Blended Fair Value$2,979.18
Current Price$1,970.00
Upside51.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%61.6684.3653.0326.210.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---26.92%59.10%102.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.13%6.90%2.94%1.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,800.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,023.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,777.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,160.00725.00435.00
Cash Retained (M)2,777.002,777.002,777.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,160.00-725.00-435.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,617.002,052.002,342.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.9449.9449.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share32.3841.0946.90
LTM Dividend per Share60.5360.5360.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share32.3841.0946.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend92.91101.62107.43
WACC / Discount Rate5.08%5.08%5.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,285.66$1,654.09$2,113.79
Upside / Downside-34.74%-16.04%7.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,800.005,742.005,684.585,627.735,571.465,515.745,681.21
Payout Ratio52.12%59.70%67.27%74.85%82.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,023.003,427.783,824.154,212.264,592.234,964.175,255.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.08%5.08%5.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,229.043,261.993,294.94
Year 2 PV (M)3,393.573,463.183,533.50
Year 3 PV (M)3,521.263,630.163,741.27
Year 4 PV (M)3,616.323,766.203,920.69
Year 5 PV (M)3,682.573,874.334,073.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)187,205.80196,954.04207,104.21
Equity Value (M)204,648.55214,949.89225,668.60
Shares Outstanding (M)49.9449.9449.94
Fair Value$4,098.00$4,304.28$4,518.92
Upside / Downside108.02%118.49%129.39%

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