Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation (4188.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13,272.64 - $15,646.69$14,658.93
Multi-Stage$25,701.02 - $28,297.73$26,974.33
Blended Fair Value$20,816.63
Current Price$851.30
Upside2,345.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-4.33%9.95%32.3431.3230.2927.2524.2140.3537.5527.6016.6514.57
YoY Growth--3.26%3.38%11.17%12.54%-39.98%7.45%36.04%65.81%14.29%16.27%
Dividend Yield--4.27%3.41%3.51%3.70%2.59%6.43%4.83%2.98%1.79%3.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114,231.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45,542.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)68,689.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22,846.2014,278.888,567.33
Cash Retained (M)68,689.0068,689.0068,689.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-22,846.20-14,278.88-8,567.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)45,842.8054,410.1360,121.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,407.891,407.891,407.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share32.5638.6542.70
LTM Dividend per Share32.3532.3532.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share32.5638.6542.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend64.9170.9975.05
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Fair Value$13,272.64$14,658.93$15,646.69
Upside / Downside1,459.10%1,621.95%1,737.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114,231.00117,932.17121,753.25125,698.15129,770.86133,975.53137,994.79
Payout Ratio39.87%49.89%59.92%69.95%79.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45,542.0058,841.8672,955.7787,922.50103,782.51120,577.97127,645.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)72,106.6272,811.8973,517.15
Year 2 PV (M)109,556.22111,709.82113,884.38
Year 3 PV (M)161,795.40166,589.50171,477.38
Year 4 PV (M)234,034.03243,325.50252,890.92
Year 5 PV (M)333,205.01349,822.13367,095.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,273,452.1237,032,559.1838,861,158.67
Equity Value (M)36,184,149.4037,976,818.0239,840,024.21
Shares Outstanding (M)1,407.891,407.891,407.89
Fair Value$25,701.02$26,974.33$28,297.73
Upside / Downside2,919.03%3,068.60%3,224.06%

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