Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. (4151.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,421.57 - $3,100.43$2,038.15
Multi-Stage$1,110.77 - $1,208.79$1,158.91
Blended Fair Value$1,598.53
Current Price$2,465.50
Upside-35.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.33%8.49%58.9255.3648.1746.1145.0741.3630.8026.0926.0926.09
YoY Growth--6.44%14.92%4.48%2.31%8.96%34.31%18.02%0.01%-0.01%-0.01%
Dividend Yield--2.71%2.10%1.67%1.62%1.36%1.71%1.28%1.12%1.48%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38,413.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30,481.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,932.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,682.604,801.632,880.98
Cash Retained (M)7,932.007,932.007,932.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,682.60-4,801.63-2,880.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)249.403,130.385,051.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)524.32524.32524.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.485.979.63
LTM Dividend per Share58.1358.1358.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.485.979.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend58.6164.1167.77
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,421.57$2,038.15$3,100.43
Upside / Downside-42.34%-17.33%25.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38,413.0040,909.8543,568.9846,400.9749,417.0352,629.1454,208.01
Payout Ratio79.35%81.48%83.61%85.74%87.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30,481.0033,333.5836,428.2239,784.3343,422.8247,366.2350,142.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30,059.7930,344.7230,629.65
Year 2 PV (M)29,624.1530,188.4130,757.99
Year 3 PV (M)29,175.8830,013.4130,866.83
Year 4 PV (M)28,716.6629,821.0230,956.93
Year 5 PV (M)28,248.0629,612.4531,029.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)436,569.58457,656.05479,549.56
Equity Value (M)582,394.12607,636.07633,790.01
Shares Outstanding (M)524.32524.32524.32
Fair Value$1,110.77$1,158.91$1,208.79
Upside / Downside-54.95%-52.99%-50.97%

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