Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Oriental Holdings Berhad (4006.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.76 - $5.69$4.67
Multi-Stage$8.02 - $8.80$8.40
Blended Fair Value$6.54
Current Price$6.83
Upside-4.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-2.76%0.00%0.400.400.600.200.080.460.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-33.33%200.00%150.00%-82.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.65%6.33%9.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)271.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)248.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.3233.9520.37
Cash Retained (M)23.4523.4523.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.32-33.95-20.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)-30.87-10.503.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)620.36620.36620.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.020.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.020.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.76$4.67$5.69
Upside / Downside-44.90%-31.62%-16.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)271.59268.88266.19263.53260.89258.28266.03
Payout Ratio91.37%91.09%90.82%90.55%90.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)248.14244.93241.75238.61235.52232.45246.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)226.34228.65230.96
Year 2 PV (M)206.45210.68214.96
Year 3 PV (M)188.30194.13200.07
Year 4 PV (M)171.75178.87186.21
Year 5 PV (M)156.65164.81173.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,025.334,234.944,453.19
Equity Value (M)4,974.835,212.095,458.70
Shares Outstanding (M)620.36620.36620.36
Fair Value$8.02$8.40$8.80
Upside / Downside17.41%23.01%28.83%

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