Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China Beststudy Education Group (3978.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.65 - $11.38$8.70
Multi-Stage$27.74 - $30.63$29.16
Blended Fair Value$18.93
Current Price$4.80
Upside294.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.030.000.000.040.070.000.130.290.000.04
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-35.90%0.00%-100.00%-54.55%38,294.42%-98.14%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.92%0.00%0.00%17.25%2.78%0.00%6.14%14.51%0.04%2.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)414.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)111.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)302.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)82.8151.7531.05
Cash Retained (M)302.08302.08302.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-82.81-51.75-31.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)219.28250.33271.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)757.95757.95757.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.330.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.330.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate4.44%4.44%4.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.65$8.70$11.38
Upside / Downside38.56%81.24%137.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)414.04409.89405.80401.74397.72393.74405.56
Payout Ratio27.04%39.63%52.22%64.82%77.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)111.95162.45211.92260.39307.87354.37375.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.44%4.44%4.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)153.97155.54157.11
Year 2 PV (M)190.38194.29198.23
Year 3 PV (M)221.72228.58235.57
Year 4 PV (M)248.47258.77269.38
Year 5 PV (M)271.08285.19299.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,938.3020,976.5422,057.58
Equity Value (M)21,023.9222,098.9023,217.77
Shares Outstanding (M)757.95757.95757.95
Fair Value$27.74$29.16$30.63
Upside / Downside477.87%507.42%538.17%

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