Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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New Hope Service Holdings Limited (3658.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.80 - $110.70$103.74
Multi-Stage$17.01 - $18.60$17.79
Blended Fair Value$60.77
Current Price$1.81
Upside3,257.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS77.47%0.00%0.180.190.070.140.390.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---2.27%162.48%-49.54%-63.54%3,630.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.84%18.00%6.05%5.99%12.08%0.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)453.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)301.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90.6456.6533.99
Cash Retained (M)151.75151.75151.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-90.64-56.65-33.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)61.1195.10117.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)814.13814.13814.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$50.80$103.74$110.70
Upside / Downside2,706.67%5,631.71%6,016.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)453.18482.63514.00547.41583.00620.89639.52
Payout Ratio66.51%71.21%75.91%80.61%85.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)301.43343.69390.17441.25497.31558.80591.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)319.91322.94325.98
Year 2 PV (M)338.05344.49350.99
Year 3 PV (M)355.85366.06376.47
Year 4 PV (M)373.31387.67402.43
Year 5 PV (M)390.44409.30428.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,068.6512,651.5713,256.80
Equity Value (M)13,846.2014,482.0315,141.54
Shares Outstanding (M)814.13814.13814.13
Fair Value$17.01$17.79$18.60
Upside / Downside839.64%882.79%927.54%

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