Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mitsubishi Estate Logistics REIT Investment Corporation (3481.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$573,401.56 - $2,262,832.70$1,571,348.53
Multi-Stage$285,519.64 - $311,839.51$298,440.61
Blended Fair Value$934,894.57
Current Price$122,500.00
Upside663.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020201920182017
DPS24.92%0.00%6,385.095,313.805,094.213,615.112,745.902,099.281,645.261,577.3558.370.00
YoY Growth--20.16%4.31%40.91%31.65%30.80%27.60%4.31%2,602.27%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.21%4.26%3.92%2.29%1.60%1.47%1.53%1.86%0.06%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,153.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,844.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,309.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,430.732,144.211,286.52
Cash Retained (M)4,309.304,309.304,309.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,430.73-2,144.21-1,286.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)878.572,165.093,022.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.511.511.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share582.761,436.122,005.03
LTM Dividend per Share8,519.778,519.778,519.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share582.761,436.122,005.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend9,102.539,955.8910,524.80
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$573,401.56$1,571,348.53$2,262,832.70
Upside / Downside368.08%1,182.73%1,747.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,153.6618,268.6519,456.1120,720.7622,067.6123,502.0024,207.06
Payout Ratio74.88%77.90%80.93%83.95%86.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,844.3614,231.7515,745.2417,395.3519,193.4421,151.8022,391.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13,154.3313,279.0113,403.70
Year 2 PV (M)13,451.4713,707.6813,966.31
Year 3 PV (M)13,736.1114,130.4314,532.22
Year 4 PV (M)14,008.5814,547.3115,101.43
Year 5 PV (M)14,269.1714,958.3815,673.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)361,828.18379,304.61397,449.91
Equity Value (M)430,447.84449,927.42470,127.54
Shares Outstanding (M)1.511.511.51
Fair Value$285,519.64$298,440.61$311,839.51
Upside / Downside133.08%143.62%154.56%

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