Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (3287.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - Hotel & MotelSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$270,365.32 - $499,215.38$364,502.75
Multi-Stage$409,005.32 - $448,388.05$428,324.19
Blended Fair Value$396,413.47
Current Price$219,600.00
Upside80.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.67%30.57%8,254.607,532.335,847.517,845.1410,778.7310,485.568,604.556,817.804,594.302,653.68
YoY Growth--9.59%28.81%-25.46%-27.22%2.80%21.86%26.21%48.40%73.13%363.11%
Dividend Yield--3.57%2.54%1.66%2.12%4.38%3.55%3.25%1.25%0.75%0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,051.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,513.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,537.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,010.301,256.44753.86
Cash Retained (M)3,537.933,537.933,537.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,010.30-1,256.44-753.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,527.632,281.492,784.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.540.540.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,804.074,187.835,110.34
LTM Dividend per Share11,956.0511,956.0511,956.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,804.074,187.835,110.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend14,760.1216,143.8817,066.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.89%6.89%6.89%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Fair Value$270,365.32$364,502.75$499,215.38
Upside / Downside23.12%65.98%127.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,051.4810,288.3910,530.8810,779.0911,033.1511,293.2011,631.99
Payout Ratio64.80%69.84%74.88%79.92%84.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,513.567,185.577,885.658,614.739,373.8110,163.8810,759.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.89%6.89%6.89%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Year 1 PV (M)6,656.706,722.386,788.05
Year 2 PV (M)6,767.576,901.777,037.28
Year 3 PV (M)6,849.127,053.857,262.62
Year 4 PV (M)6,904.097,180.627,465.37
Year 5 PV (M)6,935.027,283.957,646.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)188,710.12198,204.81208,077.89
Equity Value (M)222,822.62233,347.38244,278.00
Shares Outstanding (M)0.540.540.54
Fair Value$409,005.32$428,324.19$448,388.05
Upside / Downside86.25%95.05%104.18%

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