Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shikibo Ltd. (3109.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$930.09 - $1,593.09$1,216.98
Multi-Stage$1,984.42 - $2,184.42$2,082.47
Blended Fair Value$1,649.72
Current Price$1,001.00
Upside64.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.65%14.42%70.7045.7736.5334.0134.0934.1734.1730.6927.1418.54
YoY Growth--54.48%25.27%7.42%-0.23%-0.23%0.00%11.31%13.08%46.38%0.86%
Dividend Yield--7.25%4.08%3.62%3.80%3.61%3.44%3.50%2.40%1.86%1.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)951.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)290.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)660.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)190.20118.8871.33
Cash Retained (M)660.50660.50660.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-190.20-118.88-71.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)470.30541.63589.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.6712.6712.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share37.1142.7446.49
LTM Dividend per Share22.9222.9222.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share37.1142.7446.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend60.0365.6669.41
WACC / Discount Rate5.93%5.93%5.93%
Growth Rate-0.49%0.51%1.51%
Fair Value$930.09$1,216.98$1,593.09
Upside / Downside-7.08%21.58%59.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)951.00955.86960.75965.66970.59975.561,004.82
Payout Ratio30.55%42.44%54.33%66.22%78.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)290.50405.64521.96639.45758.12878.00929.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.93%5.93%5.93%
Growth Rate-0.49%0.51%1.51%
Year 1 PV (M)379.11382.92386.73
Year 2 PV (M)455.91465.12474.42
Year 3 PV (M)522.00537.89554.11
Year 4 PV (M)578.40602.00626.32
Year 5 PV (M)626.04658.14691.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,587.4923,745.4524,950.43
Equity Value (M)25,148.9526,391.5227,683.54
Shares Outstanding (M)12.6712.6712.67
Fair Value$1,984.42$2,082.47$2,184.42
Upside / Downside98.24%108.04%118.22%

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