Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangdong South New Media Co.,Ltd. (300770.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$206.31 - $644.42$603.91
Multi-Stage$90.61 - $99.07$94.76
Blended Fair Value$349.33
Current Price$47.60
Upside633.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%3.172.161.200.800.500.000.220.000.000.00
YoY Growth--46.73%80.00%49.47%59.23%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.01%5.31%2.60%2.00%1.05%0.00%0.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)742.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)473.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)268.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)148.4392.7755.66
Cash Retained (M)268.67268.67268.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-148.43-92.77-55.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)120.23175.90213.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)228.80228.80228.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.770.93
LTM Dividend per Share2.072.072.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.770.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.592.843.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.39%6.39%7.39%
Fair Value$206.31$603.91$644.42
Upside / Downside333.42%1,168.71%1,253.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)742.16789.56839.99893.63950.711,011.431,041.77
Payout Ratio63.80%69.04%74.28%79.52%84.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)473.49545.11623.94710.61805.82910.28963.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.39%6.39%7.39%
Year 1 PV (M)506.02510.82515.62
Year 2 PV (M)537.66547.91558.26
Year 3 PV (M)568.44584.78601.42
Year 4 PV (M)598.37621.41645.11
Year 5 PV (M)627.48657.82689.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,893.3718,758.5719,656.93
Equity Value (M)20,731.3421,681.3122,666.66
Shares Outstanding (M)228.80228.80228.80
Fair Value$90.61$94.76$99.07
Upside / Downside90.36%99.08%108.13%

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