Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ticker

Industry

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Weihai Guangwei Composites Co., Ltd. (300699.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.90 - $38.05$22.52
Multi-Stage$11.01 - $11.99$11.49
Blended Fair Value$17.00
Current Price$30.35
Upside-43.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.56%29.92%0.530.440.310.310.310.220.130.000.020.02
YoY Growth--19.54%40.00%0.00%0.00%40.00%67.69%0.00%-100.00%9.92%-57.12%
Dividend Yield--1.69%1.45%0.98%0.85%0.73%0.72%0.50%0.00%0.25%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)541.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)438.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.2067.6340.58
Cash Retained (M)102.63102.63102.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.20-67.63-40.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.5735.0162.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)825.21825.21825.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.61
WACC / Discount Rate9.21%9.21%9.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.90$22.52$38.05
Upside / Downside-50.90%-25.81%25.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)541.00576.17613.62653.51695.98741.22763.46
Payout Ratio81.03%82.82%84.62%86.41%88.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)438.37477.20519.23564.71613.90667.10706.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.21%9.21%9.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)432.84436.95441.05
Year 2 PV (M)427.18435.32443.53
Year 3 PV (M)421.41433.51445.83
Year 4 PV (M)415.53431.51447.95
Year 5 PV (M)409.57429.35449.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,978.217,315.267,665.21
Equity Value (M)9,084.759,481.909,893.47
Shares Outstanding (M)825.21825.21825.21
Fair Value$11.01$11.49$11.99
Upside / Downside-63.73%-62.14%-60.50%

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