Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co., Ltd. (300121.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.78 - $17.57$11.29
Multi-Stage$5.81 - $6.33$6.07
Blended Fair Value$8.68
Current Price$16.07
Upside-46.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.50%14.41%0.300.200.100.160.280.580.310.120.090.11
YoY Growth--52.24%97.63%-39.55%-40.68%-52.47%87.52%148.08%44.33%-22.88%44.76%
Dividend Yield--2.48%2.30%0.86%1.67%2.21%7.58%2.98%0.89%0.63%1.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)89.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)77.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.3920.8712.52
Cash Retained (M)77.0777.0777.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.39-20.87-12.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.6856.2064.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)433.50433.50433.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.68%9.68%9.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.78$11.29$17.57
Upside / Downside-51.60%-29.76%9.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166.97177.82189.38201.69214.80228.76235.62
Payout Ratio53.84%61.07%68.30%75.54%82.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)89.89108.60129.35152.35177.78205.88217.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.68%9.68%9.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)98.0899.0199.94
Year 2 PV (M)105.52107.53109.56
Year 3 PV (M)112.24115.47118.75
Year 4 PV (M)118.30122.85127.53
Year 5 PV (M)123.74129.72135.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,961.052,055.772,154.11
Equity Value (M)2,518.932,630.342,745.81
Shares Outstanding (M)433.50433.50433.50
Fair Value$5.81$6.07$6.33
Upside / Downside-63.84%-62.24%-60.58%

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