Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical CO.,Ltd (300039.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.15 - $3.04$2.59
Multi-Stage$3.27 - $3.59$3.43
Blended Fair Value$3.01
Current Price$6.07
Upside-50.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.34%-2.64%0.100.060.050.030.100.100.100.100.080.12
YoY Growth--66.73%20.00%65.27%-69.75%-1.71%-0.68%0.00%29.98%-35.64%-6.36%
Dividend Yield--1.58%0.96%0.67%0.35%2.48%1.90%1.94%1.58%1.00%1.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)345.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)240.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.1143.1925.92
Cash Retained (M)240.93240.93240.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.11-43.19-25.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)171.82197.74215.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,045.871,045.871,045.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.05%-1.05%-0.05%
Fair Value$2.15$2.59$3.04
Upside / Downside-64.59%-57.33%-49.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)345.55341.91338.32334.75331.23327.75337.58
Payout Ratio30.28%42.22%54.17%66.11%78.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.62144.36183.25221.31258.54294.97312.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.05%-1.05%-0.05%
Year 1 PV (M)129.92131.25132.57
Year 2 PV (M)148.42151.47154.55
Year 3 PV (M)161.32166.31171.40
Year 4 PV (M)169.61176.64183.89
Year 5 PV (M)174.15183.22192.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,636.642,774.012,917.05
Equity Value (M)3,420.053,582.903,752.13
Shares Outstanding (M)1,045.871,045.871,045.87
Fair Value$3.27$3.43$3.59
Upside / Downside-46.13%-43.56%-40.90%

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