Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Wangsu Science & Technology Co.,Ltd. (300017.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.29 - $17.01$10.70
Multi-Stage$5.50 - $5.99$5.74
Blended Fair Value$8.22
Current Price$11.54
Upside-28.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.94%34.56%0.250.050.030.010.030.040.050.080.060.02
YoY Growth--395.86%44.93%132.35%-53.34%-28.63%-7.78%-43.24%31.27%234.55%52.23%
Dividend Yield--2.05%0.53%0.48%0.25%0.49%0.57%0.36%0.57%0.48%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)861.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)621.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)239.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)172.32107.7064.62
Cash Retained (M)239.67239.67239.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-172.32-107.70-64.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.35131.97175.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,469.202,469.202,469.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.29$10.70$17.01
Upside / Downside-36.82%-7.29%47.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)861.59917.59977.231,040.751,108.401,180.451,215.86
Payout Ratio72.18%75.75%79.31%82.87%86.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)621.92695.04775.04862.51958.071,062.401,124.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)628.55634.51640.47
Year 2 PV (M)633.85645.93658.11
Year 3 PV (M)637.91656.22674.88
Year 4 PV (M)640.80665.45690.80
Year 5 PV (M)642.62673.66705.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,402.8810,905.3411,427.04
Equity Value (M)13,586.6214,181.1114,797.18
Shares Outstanding (M)2,469.202,469.202,469.20
Fair Value$5.50$5.74$5.99
Upside / Downside-52.32%-50.23%-48.07%

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