Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

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Industry

Sector

Aier Eye Hospital Group Co., Ltd. (300015.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.34 - $30.35$15.14
Multi-Stage$6.24 - $6.81$6.52
Blended Fair Value$10.83
Current Price$12.34
Upside-12.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.52%36.01%0.150.080.070.070.060.060.060.020.030.01
YoY Growth--90.03%11.05%1.52%24.83%3.23%-2.34%171.24%-34.39%201.18%49.88%
Dividend Yield--1.15%0.61%0.30%0.38%0.21%0.40%0.61%0.28%0.88%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,219.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,603.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,615.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)643.81402.38241.43
Cash Retained (M)1,615.911,615.911,615.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-643.81-402.38-241.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)972.111,213.541,374.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,264.749,264.749,264.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate8.64%8.64%8.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.34$15.14$30.35
Upside / Downside-24.28%22.70%145.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,219.033,428.263,651.103,888.424,141.174,410.354,542.66
Payout Ratio49.80%57.84%65.88%73.92%81.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,603.111,982.942,405.372,874.343,394.113,969.314,201.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.64%8.64%8.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,808.131,825.271,842.40
Year 2 PV (M)1,999.962,038.052,076.50
Year 3 PV (M)2,179.192,241.752,305.49
Year 4 PV (M)2,346.412,436.642,529.46
Year 5 PV (M)2,502.142,622.992,748.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,977.2649,246.2851,602.14
Equity Value (M)57,813.0860,410.9863,104.47
Shares Outstanding (M)9,264.749,264.749,264.74
Fair Value$6.24$6.52$6.81
Upside / Downside-49.43%-47.16%-44.80%

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