Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Jing-Jan Retail Business Co., Ltd. (2942.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.27 - $88.76$72.56
Multi-Stage$148.78 - $163.81$156.15
Blended Fair Value$114.35
Current Price$31.05
Upside268.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.55%0.00%2.521.660.833.223.513.530.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--51.50%101.20%-74.38%-8.22%-0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.82%3.74%2.33%7.59%7.79%6.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)400.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)252.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)148.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.0850.0530.03
Cash Retained (M)148.40148.40148.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.08-50.05-30.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.3298.35118.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60.2860.2860.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.131.631.96
LTM Dividend per Share4.184.184.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.131.631.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.315.816.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.69%-1.69%-0.69%
Fair Value$58.27$72.56$88.76
Upside / Downside87.66%133.69%185.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)400.40393.62386.95380.40373.95367.62378.65
Payout Ratio62.94%68.35%73.76%79.17%84.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)252.00269.04285.42301.18316.32330.86350.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.69%-1.69%-0.69%
Year 1 PV (M)250.80253.38255.95
Year 2 PV (M)248.04253.16258.34
Year 3 PV (M)243.99251.59259.35
Year 4 PV (M)238.88248.86259.14
Year 5 PV (M)232.93245.14257.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,753.708,160.398,583.97
Equity Value (M)8,968.349,412.529,874.62
Shares Outstanding (M)60.2860.2860.28
Fair Value$148.78$156.15$163.81
Upside / Downside379.15%402.89%427.57%

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