Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nissin Foods Holdings Co.,Ltd. (2897.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,685.67 - $9,240.81$5,536.96
Multi-Stage$2,622.03 - $2,861.24$2,739.48
Blended Fair Value$4,138.22
Current Price$2,786.00
Upside48.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.59%10.60%76.7853.2943.1947.4438.8738.8735.3331.7829.3428.04
YoY Growth--44.08%23.37%-8.95%22.05%0.01%10.02%11.15%8.34%4.61%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.56%1.31%1.09%1.52%1.46%1.22%1.52%1.19%1.25%1.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48,569.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20,754.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)27,815.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,713.806,071.133,642.68
Cash Retained (M)27,815.0027,815.0027,815.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,713.80-6,071.13-3,642.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)18,101.2021,743.8824,172.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)294.78294.78294.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share61.4073.7682.00
LTM Dividend per Share70.4070.4070.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share61.4073.7682.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend131.81144.17152.40
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,685.67$5,536.96$9,240.81
Upside / Downside32.29%98.74%231.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48,569.0051,725.9955,088.1758,668.9162,482.3866,543.7468,540.05
Payout Ratio42.73%52.18%61.64%71.09%80.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20,754.0026,993.0933,955.5741,709.1250,327.1859,889.3763,399.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)24,470.4924,702.4424,934.39
Year 2 PV (M)27,905.6028,437.1328,973.66
Year 3 PV (M)31,074.3331,966.3632,875.30
Year 4 PV (M)33,990.9635,298.1636,642.70
Year 5 PV (M)36,669.1538,440.2840,279.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)618,822.34648,711.69679,744.98
Equity Value (M)772,932.87807,556.06843,450.23
Shares Outstanding (M)294.78294.78294.78
Fair Value$2,622.03$2,739.48$2,861.24
Upside / Downside-5.89%-1.67%2.70%

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