Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

CTBC Financial Holding Co., Ltd. (2891.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$109.60 - $427.44$185.87
Multi-Stage$71.35 - $77.85$74.54
Blended Fair Value$130.20
Current Price$42.90
Upside203.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.64%20.71%1.841.041.281.081.031.021.060.980.730.62
YoY Growth--76.93%-18.73%18.55%5.15%1.18%-3.91%8.22%33.33%18.16%121.07%
Dividend Yield--4.67%3.29%5.87%3.68%4.65%5.68%5.21%4.61%3.91%3.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)74,138.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46,725.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)27,412.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14,827.699,267.305,560.38
Cash Retained (M)27,412.6227,412.6227,412.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-14,827.69-9,267.30-5,560.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)12,584.9418,145.3221,852.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19,923.3919,923.3919,923.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.911.10
LTM Dividend per Share2.352.352.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.911.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.983.263.44
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$109.60$185.87$427.44
Upside / Downside155.47%333.25%896.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)74,138.4378,957.4384,089.6689,555.4995,376.60101,576.08104,623.36
Payout Ratio63.03%68.42%73.82%79.21%84.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46,725.8154,022.7362,070.8370,936.9480,693.3991,418.4796,776.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)49,384.1549,852.2550,320.34
Year 2 PV (M)51,869.2252,857.1853,854.47
Year 3 PV (M)54,188.3255,743.8757,328.91
Year 4 PV (M)56,348.4958,515.5060,744.41
Year 5 PV (M)58,356.5261,175.1664,101.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,151,332.991,206,942.801,264,680.93
Equity Value (M)1,421,479.691,485,086.761,551,030.74
Shares Outstanding (M)19,923.3919,923.3919,923.39
Fair Value$71.35$74.54$77.85
Upside / Downside66.31%73.75%81.47%

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