Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Binhai Investment Company Limited (2886.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.62 - $67.31$63.08
Multi-Stage$10.46 - $11.45$10.95
Blended Fair Value$37.01
Current Price$1.03
Upside3,493.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.13%7.85%0.050.100.090.080.030.040.050.040.040.03
YoY Growth---52.15%11.11%13.92%159.87%-22.22%-18.18%10.00%0.00%37.36%40.69%
Dividend Yield--4.11%6.87%5.67%4.94%2.53%2.65%3.78%2.40%2.15%1.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)462.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)169.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)293.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.5557.8534.71
Cash Retained (M)293.64293.64293.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.55-57.85-34.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)201.09235.79258.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,367.331,367.331,367.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.62$63.08$67.31
Upside / Downside3,261.30%6,024.03%6,434.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)462.77492.85524.88559.00595.33634.03653.05
Payout Ratio36.55%47.24%57.93%68.62%79.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)169.13232.81304.05383.58472.15570.63604.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)216.90218.96221.01
Year 2 PV (M)263.93268.95274.03
Year 3 PV (M)310.21319.11328.19
Year 4 PV (M)355.76369.44383.51
Year 5 PV (M)400.58419.93440.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,753.3813,369.3714,008.94
Equity Value (M)14,300.7514,965.7615,655.69
Shares Outstanding (M)1,367.331,367.331,367.33
Fair Value$10.46$10.95$11.45
Upside / Downside915.42%962.64%1,011.63%

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