Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Limited (2877.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.94 - $223.66$110.50
Multi-Stage$67.59 - $74.09$70.78
Blended Fair Value$90.64
Current Price$7.15
Upside1,167.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.37%4.10%0.540.420.320.600.320.330.350.350.350.36
YoY Growth--28.57%31.25%-46.65%87.63%-3.05%-4.64%-1.31%0.00%-3.03%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.96%6.27%4.78%10.69%7.15%5.00%5.18%5.73%4.45%4.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,932.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)762.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,169.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)386.55241.60144.96
Cash Retained (M)1,169.811,169.811,169.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-386.55-241.60-144.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)783.25928.211,024.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)755.40755.40755.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.041.231.36
LTM Dividend per Share1.011.011.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.041.231.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.052.242.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Fair Value$67.94$110.50$223.66
Upside / Downside850.28%1,445.48%3,028.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,932.762,018.142,107.282,200.372,297.562,399.052,471.02
Payout Ratio39.47%49.58%59.68%69.79%79.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)762.951,000.591,257.731,535.631,835.642,159.152,285.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Year 1 PV (M)930.24939.23948.23
Year 2 PV (M)1,087.081,108.211,129.53
Year 3 PV (M)1,233.961,270.101,306.94
Year 4 PV (M)1,371.311,425.131,480.51
Year 5 PV (M)1,499.581,573.501,650.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,935.6647,150.6349,452.09
Equity Value (M)51,057.8353,466.7955,967.60
Shares Outstanding (M)755.40755.40755.40
Fair Value$67.59$70.78$74.09
Upside / Downside845.32%889.92%936.22%

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