Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Lion Travel Service Co., Ltd. (2731.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,134.39 - $3,083.95$2,890.11
Multi-Stage$437.80 - $478.93$457.99
Blended Fair Value$1,674.05
Current Price$158.50
Upside956.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.91%10.30%7.960.000.000.001.492.843.882.993.433.14
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-47.37%-26.92%30.00%-13.04%9.52%5.00%
Dividend Yield--6.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.62%5.19%4.49%2.59%3.85%2.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,453.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)699.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)754.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)290.74181.71109.03
Cash Retained (M)754.12754.12754.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-290.74-181.71-109.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)463.38572.40645.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.7493.7493.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.946.116.88
LTM Dividend per Share7.467.467.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.946.116.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.4113.5714.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,134.39$2,890.11$3,083.95
Upside / Downside615.71%1,723.41%1,845.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,453.701,548.191,648.821,756.001,870.141,991.692,051.45
Payout Ratio48.12%56.50%64.87%73.25%81.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)699.58874.721,069.671,286.261,526.501,792.531,897.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)812.45820.15827.85
Year 2 PV (M)922.79940.37958.11
Year 3 PV (M)1,030.651,060.231,090.38
Year 4 PV (M)1,136.061,179.751,224.69
Year 5 PV (M)1,239.081,298.931,361.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,900.3737,634.3739,434.74
Equity Value (M)41,041.4042,933.8044,896.83
Shares Outstanding (M)93.7493.7493.74
Fair Value$437.80$457.99$478.93
Upside / Downside176.21%188.95%202.16%

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