Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kadoya Sesame Mills Incorporated (2612.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,632.50 - $4,011.95$3,278.77
Multi-Stage$3,321.89 - $3,634.90$3,475.47
Blended Fair Value$3,377.12
Current Price$3,770.00
Upside-10.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-3.56%6.98%100.07100.18109.9684.97110.07119.95149.83117.3561.1740.75
YoY Growth---0.11%-8.89%29.41%-22.80%-8.24%-19.94%27.69%91.83%50.13%-20.04%
Dividend Yield--2.75%2.74%3.16%2.42%2.73%3.20%3.77%1.94%1.20%1.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,646.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)919.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,727.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)529.20330.75198.45
Cash Retained (M)1,727.001,727.001,727.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-529.20-330.75-198.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,197.801,396.251,528.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.209.209.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share130.15151.71166.08
LTM Dividend per Share99.8599.8599.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share130.15151.71166.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend230.00251.56265.94
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate1.15%2.15%3.15%
Fair Value$2,632.50$3,278.77$4,011.95
Upside / Downside-30.17%-13.03%6.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,646.002,702.922,761.072,820.472,881.152,943.143,031.43
Payout Ratio34.73%45.79%56.84%67.89%78.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)919.001,237.541,569.371,914.902,274.562,648.822,804.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate1.15%2.15%3.15%
Year 1 PV (M)1,114.141,125.151,136.17
Year 2 PV (M)1,271.991,297.261,322.78
Year 3 PV (M)1,397.271,439.131,481.81
Year 4 PV (M)1,494.221,554.191,615.94
Year 5 PV (M)1,566.561,645.541,727.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,728.8424,925.2026,169.34
Equity Value (M)30,573.0231,986.4733,453.72
Shares Outstanding (M)9.209.209.20
Fair Value$3,321.89$3,475.47$3,634.90
Upside / Downside-11.89%-7.81%-3.58%

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