Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited (2388.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$99.14 - $177.22$131.97
Multi-Stage$150.18 - $164.76$157.33
Blended Fair Value$144.65
Current Price$34.10
Upside324.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.16%5.44%1.711.441.131.241.441.471.301.271.931.12
YoY Growth--19.34%27.17%-9.02%-13.69%-1.98%12.67%3.00%-34.59%72.67%10.89%
Dividend Yield--6.87%6.91%4.25%4.86%6.12%5.43%4.48%3.17%6.97%4.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76,110.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36,391.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)39,719.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15,222.009,513.755,708.25
Cash Retained (M)39,719.0039,719.0039,719.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-15,222.00-9,513.75-5,708.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)24,497.0030,205.2534,010.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,572.7810,572.7810,572.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.322.863.22
LTM Dividend per Share3.443.443.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.322.863.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.766.306.66
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.16%2.16%3.16%
Fair Value$99.14$131.97$177.22
Upside / Downside190.74%287.01%419.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76,110.0077,752.8779,431.2081,145.7582,897.3284,686.7087,227.30
Payout Ratio47.81%56.25%64.69%73.13%81.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36,391.0043,736.7351,382.6259,338.2267,613.3276,218.0380,685.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.16%2.16%3.16%
Year 1 PV (M)40,462.2840,862.2741,262.26
Year 2 PV (M)43,976.8844,850.6445,733.00
Year 3 PV (M)46,983.6448,390.8349,825.83
Year 4 PV (M)49,527.7451,515.3953,562.28
Year 5 PV (M)51,650.9154,254.8556,962.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,355,263.391,423,588.051,494,640.96
Equity Value (M)1,587,864.841,663,462.021,741,987.09
Shares Outstanding (M)10,572.7810,572.7810,572.78
Fair Value$150.18$157.33$164.76
Upside / Downside340.42%361.39%383.17%

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