Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Gushengtang Holdings Limited (2273.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.89 - $25.83$21.76
Multi-Stage$28.99 - $31.87$30.40
Blended Fair Value$26.08
Current Price$31.33
Upside-16.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.110.360.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---68.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)617.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)117.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)499.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)123.4977.1846.31
Cash Retained (M)499.88499.88499.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-123.49-77.18-46.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)376.39422.70453.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)247.48247.48247.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.521.711.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.521.711.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.002.182.31
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$17.89$21.76$25.83
Upside / Downside-42.90%-30.56%-17.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)617.43611.25605.14599.09593.10587.17604.78
Payout Ratio19.04%33.23%47.42%61.62%75.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)117.55203.12286.98369.13449.61528.45559.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)184.58186.47188.35
Year 2 PV (M)236.98241.84246.75
Year 3 PV (M)276.99285.56294.30
Year 4 PV (M)306.59319.30332.40
Year 5 PV (M)327.46344.51362.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,842.416,146.646,463.41
Equity Value (M)7,175.017,524.317,887.46
Shares Outstanding (M)247.48247.48247.48
Fair Value$28.99$30.40$31.87
Upside / Downside-7.46%-2.96%1.73%

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