Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic Co., Ltd. (2145.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.12 - $43.54$36.65
Multi-Stage$52.08 - $57.07$54.53
Blended Fair Value$45.59
Current Price$74.80
Upside-39.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%1.310.450.500.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--191.51%-10.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.01%1.85%1.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,665.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,069.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)595.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)333.10208.19124.91
Cash Retained (M)595.51595.51595.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-333.10-208.19-124.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)262.41387.32470.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.98397.98397.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.971.18
LTM Dividend per Share2.692.692.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.971.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.353.663.87
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$30.12$36.65$43.54
Upside / Downside-59.73%-51.00%-41.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,665.501,648.841,632.361,616.031,599.871,583.871,631.39
Payout Ratio64.24%69.40%74.55%79.70%84.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,069.991,144.231,216.871,287.941,357.471,425.491,509.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,040.181,050.791,061.41
Year 2 PV (M)1,005.621,026.251,047.09
Year 3 PV (M)967.58997.501,028.03
Year 4 PV (M)927.08965.501,005.11
Year 5 PV (M)885.00931.09979.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,901.6016,729.6417,591.81
Equity Value (M)20,727.0621,700.7722,712.51
Shares Outstanding (M)397.98397.98397.98
Fair Value$52.08$54.53$57.07
Upside / Downside-30.37%-27.10%-23.70%

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