Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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VCREDIT Holdings Limited (2003.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.74 - $24.21$19.69
Multi-Stage$34.02 - $37.49$35.72
Blended Fair Value$27.70
Current Price$3.48
Upside696.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.090.230.210.160.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---59.12%5.40%30.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.03%11.43%8.32%4.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)845.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)156.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)689.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)169.19105.7463.45
Cash Retained (M)689.74689.74689.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-169.19-105.74-63.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)520.55583.99626.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)490.00490.00490.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.061.191.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.061.191.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.381.511.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.74$19.69$24.21
Upside / Downside352.42%465.68%595.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)845.95837.49829.12820.83812.62804.49828.63
Payout Ratio18.47%32.77%47.08%61.39%75.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)156.21274.47390.35503.88615.10724.04766.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)254.88257.48260.08
Year 2 PV (M)336.62343.53350.50
Year 3 PV (M)403.52416.00428.73
Year 4 PV (M)457.43476.39495.93
Year 5 PV (M)500.03526.06553.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,715.8015,482.0916,279.97
Equity Value (M)16,668.2817,501.5418,368.39
Shares Outstanding (M)490.00490.00490.00
Fair Value$34.02$35.72$37.49
Upside / Downside877.51%926.37%977.21%

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