Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Man Wah Holdings Limited (1999.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88.48 - $196.94$184.57
Multi-Stage$29.91 - $32.71$31.28
Blended Fair Value$107.92
Current Price$5.66
Upside1,806.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.57%-0.48%0.300.250.320.290.210.130.180.260.230.14
YoY Growth--19.11%-22.21%9.43%37.20%68.44%-27.98%-32.99%14.43%59.51%-53.83%
Dividend Yield--0.00%4.41%4.96%3.41%1.33%2.99%3.69%4.21%3.73%2.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,873.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,232.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,641.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)774.75484.22290.53
Cash Retained (M)1,641.521,641.521,641.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-774.75-484.22-290.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)866.771,157.311,350.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,911.723,911.723,911.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.300.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.300.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$88.48$184.57$196.94
Upside / Downside1,463.25%3,160.87%3,379.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,873.744,125.534,393.694,679.284,983.435,307.355,466.57
Payout Ratio57.62%64.10%70.57%77.05%83.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,232.212,644.443,100.833,605.374,162.404,776.625,056.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,461.012,484.342,507.66
Year 2 PV (M)2,685.572,736.722,788.35
Year 3 PV (M)2,905.942,989.363,074.36
Year 4 PV (M)3,122.203,242.273,365.77
Year 5 PV (M)3,334.393,495.443,662.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)102,473.17107,422.67112,561.59
Equity Value (M)116,982.28122,370.79127,960.40
Shares Outstanding (M)3,911.723,911.723,911.72
Fair Value$29.91$31.28$32.71
Upside / Downside428.37%452.71%477.95%

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