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Definitive Analysis

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Microware Group Limited (1985.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.00 - $3.04$2.49
Multi-Stage$4.34 - $4.77$4.55
Blended Fair Value$3.52
Current Price$1.31
Upside168.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.050.110.140.210.060.110.060.000.17
YoY Growth---100.00%-57.14%-25.00%-30.00%263.64%-50.00%83.33%0.00%-100.00%437.03%
Dividend Yield--0.00%5.16%12.75%16.24%22.94%8.11%11.95%4.30%0.00%4.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.058.164.89
Cash Retained (M)20.2620.2620.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.05-8.16-4.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.2112.1115.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)290.62290.62290.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.00$2.49$3.04
Upside / Downside52.29%89.77%132.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.2664.6163.9663.3262.6962.0663.93
Payout Ratio68.95%73.16%77.37%81.58%85.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.0047.2749.4951.6653.7855.8659.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)43.8044.2544.70
Year 2 PV (M)42.5043.3744.25
Year 3 PV (M)41.1142.3843.68
Year 4 PV (M)39.6641.3042.99
Year 5 PV (M)38.1740.1542.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,056.321,111.331,168.60
Equity Value (M)1,261.551,322.781,386.44
Shares Outstanding (M)290.62290.62290.62
Fair Value$4.34$4.55$4.77
Upside / Downside231.36%247.44%264.17%

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