Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Datang Corporation Renewable Power Co., Limited (1798.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.43 - $124.82$116.97
Multi-Stage$18.76 - $20.51$19.62
Blended Fair Value$68.29
Current Price$2.23
Upside2,962.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS52.52%49.30%0.170.050.030.030.030.020.020.010.020.02
YoY Growth--230.09%66.67%0.00%0.00%50.00%11.11%50.00%-36.18%17.90%431.60%
Dividend Yield--8.46%3.05%1.47%1.03%2.91%2.83%2.18%1.57%2.96%1.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,565.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,876.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,688.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)913.01570.63342.38
Cash Retained (M)1,688.991,688.991,688.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-913.01-570.63-342.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)775.981,118.361,346.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,273.707,273.707,273.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.150.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.150.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$53.43$116.97$124.82
Upside / Downside2,295.80%5,145.32%5,497.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,565.044,861.775,177.785,514.345,872.776,254.506,442.14
Payout Ratio63.00%68.40%73.80%79.20%84.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,876.053,325.523,821.264,367.394,968.395,629.055,958.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,093.483,122.803,152.12
Year 2 PV (M)3,306.613,369.593,433.16
Year 3 PV (M)3,515.503,616.413,719.24
Year 4 PV (M)3,720.213,863.284,010.44
Year 5 PV (M)3,920.814,110.194,306.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)118,878.94124,620.84130,582.49
Equity Value (M)136,435.54142,703.11149,204.27
Shares Outstanding (M)7,273.707,273.707,273.70
Fair Value$18.76$19.62$20.51
Upside / Downside741.14%779.78%819.86%

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