Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Energy Investment Development Co., Ltd. (1713.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.78 - $139.94$131.14
Multi-Stage$20.72 - $22.67$21.68
Blended Fair Value$76.41
Current Price$2.46
Upside3,006.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.43%0.00%0.150.140.130.130.120.080.060.030.070.04
YoY Growth--7.26%4.12%-0.53%12.22%37.78%41.70%95.92%-56.84%89.28%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.34%9.07%9.76%9.32%11.26%4.94%3.87%2.08%4.49%2.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)755.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)312.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)443.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)151.1994.5056.70
Cash Retained (M)443.34443.34443.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-151.19-94.50-56.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)292.15348.85386.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,074.361,074.361,074.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$59.78$131.14$139.94
Upside / Downside2,329.98%5,230.99%5,588.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)755.97805.11857.44913.17972.531,035.741,066.82
Payout Ratio41.35%51.08%60.81%70.54%80.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)312.63411.28521.43644.17780.66932.17986.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)382.57386.20389.82
Year 2 PV (M)451.19459.78468.46
Year 3 PV (M)518.49533.37548.54
Year 4 PV (M)584.49606.97630.09
Year 5 PV (M)649.22680.58713.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,673.0420,623.2621,609.84
Equity Value (M)22,259.0023,290.1624,359.89
Shares Outstanding (M)1,074.361,074.361,074.36
Fair Value$20.72$21.68$22.67
Upside / Downside742.21%781.23%821.70%

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