Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Gench Education Group Limited (1525.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.19 - $17.21$14.00
Multi-Stage$24.23 - $26.69$25.44
Blended Fair Value$19.72
Current Price$2.48
Upside695.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.180.180.180.160.090.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---0.13%2.93%13.79%78.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.69%5.31%5.21%3.92%1.60%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)485.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)108.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)377.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)97.1260.7036.42
Cash Retained (M)377.17377.17377.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-97.12-60.70-36.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)280.05316.47340.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)395.13395.13395.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.800.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.800.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.081.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.19$14.00$17.21
Upside / Downside351.40%464.32%593.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)485.59480.73475.92471.16466.45461.79475.64
Payout Ratio22.33%35.86%49.40%62.93%76.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)108.42172.40235.09296.51356.67415.61439.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)160.08161.72163.35
Year 2 PV (M)202.70206.85211.05
Year 3 PV (M)237.39244.73252.22
Year 4 PV (M)265.15276.14287.47
Year 5 PV (M)286.89301.83317.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,421.038,859.539,316.12
Equity Value (M)9,573.2410,050.8110,547.60
Shares Outstanding (M)395.13395.13395.13
Fair Value$24.23$25.44$26.69
Upside / Downside876.93%925.67%976.37%

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