Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Hongqiao Group Limited (1378.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$417.76 - $904.15$847.32
Multi-Stage$138.31 - $151.30$144.68
Blended Fair Value$496.00
Current Price$16.40
Upside2,924.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.23%22.18%0.970.450.940.760.390.200.510.000.100.14
YoY Growth--113.99%-51.59%23.82%93.40%96.16%-60.50%0.00%-100.00%-31.96%8.46%
Dividend Yield--8.80%7.84%14.41%11.31%6.56%4.75%12.93%0.00%1.59%3.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43,737.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24,880.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)18,857.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,747.495,467.183,280.31
Cash Retained (M)18,857.3118,857.3118,857.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,747.49-5,467.18-3,280.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,109.8213,390.1315,577.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,620.419,620.419,620.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.051.391.62
LTM Dividend per Share2.592.592.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.051.391.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.643.984.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$417.76$847.32$904.15
Upside / Downside2,447.32%5,066.59%5,413.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43,737.4346,580.3749,608.0952,832.6156,266.7359,924.0761,721.79
Payout Ratio56.89%63.51%70.13%76.75%83.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24,880.1229,582.3334,790.7140,551.1946,913.5453,931.6757,092.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)27,537.0927,798.1128,059.12
Year 2 PV (M)30,146.3530,720.5531,300.17
Year 3 PV (M)32,708.5133,647.4634,604.20
Year 4 PV (M)35,224.2036,578.8337,972.15
Year 5 PV (M)37,694.0339,514.6741,404.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,167,278.091,223,658.061,282,195.82
Equity Value (M)1,330,588.281,391,917.671,455,536.45
Shares Outstanding (M)9,620.419,620.419,620.41
Fair Value$138.31$144.68$151.30
Upside / Downside743.35%782.22%822.54%

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