Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiashili Group Limited (1285.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.38 - $6.08$4.51
Multi-Stage$6.09 - $6.69$6.38
Blended Fair Value$5.45
Current Price$0.89
Upside509.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.78%3.98%0.090.040.040.120.040.090.130.130.130.05
YoY Growth--107.59%2.20%-65.54%178.15%-48.88%-30.12%-5.48%4.50%167.20%-22.96%
Dividend Yield--8.43%3.05%4.91%10.93%3.39%6.30%7.94%8.40%4.74%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)101.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.2812.677.60
Cash Retained (M)45.3845.3845.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.28-12.67-7.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.1032.7137.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)415.00415.00415.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate0.50%1.50%2.50%
Fair Value$3.38$4.51$6.08
Upside / Downside278.36%404.88%580.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)101.40102.92104.46106.03107.63109.24112.52
Payout Ratio55.24%62.19%69.14%76.10%83.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.0164.0172.2380.6989.3898.32104.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate0.50%1.50%2.50%
Year 1 PV (M)59.6260.2160.80
Year 2 PV (M)62.6663.9165.18
Year 3 PV (M)65.1967.1669.16
Year 4 PV (M)67.2669.9872.78
Year 5 PV (M)68.9172.4176.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,203.952,315.802,432.14
Equity Value (M)2,527.582,649.462,776.10
Shares Outstanding (M)415.00415.00415.00
Fair Value$6.09$6.38$6.69
Upside / Downside581.30%614.15%648.29%

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