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Definitive Analysis

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China Lilang Limited (1234.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.52 - $11.65$9.44
Multi-Stage$17.77 - $19.55$18.64
Blended Fair Value$14.04
Current Price$3.41
Upside311.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.22%0.83%0.330.290.280.370.440.510.410.350.360.35
YoY Growth--14.25%2.24%-23.64%-14.34%-14.77%23.65%17.64%-2.48%4.30%12.78%
Dividend Yield--9.16%7.62%8.57%10.50%9.78%8.99%7.13%6.67%9.21%7.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)963.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)641.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)321.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)192.66120.4172.25
Cash Retained (M)321.69321.69321.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-192.66-120.41-72.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)129.03201.28249.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,197.491,197.491,197.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.170.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.170.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.05%-1.05%-0.05%
Fair Value$7.52$9.44$11.65
Upside / Downside120.54%176.69%241.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)963.29953.21943.23933.36923.60913.93941.35
Payout Ratio66.61%71.28%75.96%80.64%85.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)641.60679.49716.51752.68788.02822.54870.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.05%-1.05%-0.05%
Year 1 PV (M)632.54639.00645.46
Year 2 PV (M)620.93633.67646.54
Year 3 PV (M)607.22626.00645.17
Year 4 PV (M)591.81616.34641.64
Year 5 PV (M)575.05605.01636.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,250.3119,201.1020,191.12
Equity Value (M)21,277.8522,321.1423,406.14
Shares Outstanding (M)1,197.491,197.491,197.49
Fair Value$17.77$18.64$19.55
Upside / Downside421.08%446.63%473.20%

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