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Definitive Analysis

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Lion Rock Group Limited (1127.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.04 - $106.17$99.49
Multi-Stage$15.89 - $17.39$16.63
Blended Fair Value$58.06
Current Price$1.38
Upside4,107.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.02%6.48%0.120.130.090.080.040.100.100.090.070.07
YoY Growth---2.59%44.44%12.50%92.31%-60.00%5.26%5.56%28.57%0.00%7.69%
Dividend Yield--9.68%11.57%9.57%9.32%5.09%8.70%7.22%5.83%5.28%6.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)404.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)213.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.9150.5730.34
Cash Retained (M)213.46213.46213.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.91-50.57-30.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)132.55162.89183.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)756.54756.54756.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.32%6.32%7.32%
Fair Value$40.04$99.49$106.17
Upside / Downside2,801.19%7,109.67%7,593.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)404.54430.12457.32486.24516.99549.68566.17
Payout Ratio47.23%55.79%64.34%72.89%81.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.08239.95294.24354.44421.07494.71523.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.32%6.32%7.32%
Year 1 PV (M)223.30225.42227.54
Year 2 PV (M)254.81259.67264.58
Year 3 PV (M)285.63293.84302.21
Year 4 PV (M)315.77327.94340.45
Year 5 PV (M)345.24361.95379.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,596.6811,109.3711,641.72
Equity Value (M)12,021.4212,578.1813,155.79
Shares Outstanding (M)756.54756.54756.54
Fair Value$15.89$16.63$17.39
Upside / Downside1,051.44%1,104.77%1,160.09%

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