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Definitive Analysis

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Sinopharm Group Co. Ltd. (1099.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$420.79 - $986.39$924.39
Multi-Stage$148.10 - $161.96$154.90
Blended Fair Value$539.65
Current Price$16.77
Upside3,117.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.14%15.06%0.870.820.750.690.600.560.510.440.360.28
YoY Growth--6.10%9.33%8.70%15.45%6.38%11.18%13.99%21.94%32.26%28.46%
Dividend Yield--4.36%4.49%4.29%5.00%3.77%2.21%1.75%1.56%1.27%1.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,456.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,757.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,699.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,091.341,932.091,159.25
Cash Retained (M)5,699.545,699.545,699.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,091.34-1,932.09-1,159.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,608.203,767.454,540.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,116.383,116.383,116.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.841.211.46
LTM Dividend per Share3.133.133.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.841.211.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.974.344.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$420.79$924.39$986.39
Upside / Downside2,409.21%5,412.16%5,781.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,456.7216,461.4017,531.4018,670.9419,884.5521,177.0421,812.35
Payout Ratio63.13%68.50%73.88%79.25%84.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,757.1811,276.1712,951.4014,796.7816,827.3319,059.3420,176.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,489.0510,588.4710,687.89
Year 2 PV (M)11,206.3911,419.8411,635.30
Year 3 PV (M)11,909.4112,251.2912,599.65
Year 4 PV (M)12,598.3313,082.8213,581.16
Year 5 PV (M)13,273.3313,914.4414,580.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)402,061.69421,481.42441,644.39
Equity Value (M)461,538.19482,738.27504,728.47
Shares Outstanding (M)3,116.383,116.383,116.38
Fair Value$148.10$154.90$161.96
Upside / Downside783.13%823.69%865.77%

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