Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Haitai Confectionery&Foods Co.,ltd. (101530.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,603.06 - $13,388.64$10,813.34
Multi-Stage$19,895.25 - $21,923.27$20,889.23
Blended Fair Value$15,851.28
Current Price$6,640.00
Upside138.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.92%0.00%200.01200.01200.01200.01150.01150.01150.01150.010.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%33.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.07%3.77%3.24%2.44%1.81%2.09%1.47%1.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24,060.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,629.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)17,430.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,812.013,007.511,804.50
Cash Retained (M)17,430.6517,430.6517,430.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,812.01-3,007.51-1,804.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)12,618.6414,423.1415,626.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.5226.5226.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share475.88543.93589.30
LTM Dividend per Share250.01250.01250.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share475.88543.93589.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend725.89793.94839.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8,603.06$10,813.34$13,388.64
Upside / Downside29.56%62.85%101.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24,060.0723,819.4623,581.2723,345.4623,112.0022,880.8823,567.31
Payout Ratio27.55%40.04%52.53%65.02%77.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,629.429,538.0012,387.7515,179.5517,914.2820,592.7921,799.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)8,884.698,975.359,066.01
Year 2 PV (M)10,748.8610,969.3511,192.07
Year 3 PV (M)12,269.1412,648.5713,035.74
Year 4 PV (M)13,487.7514,046.7514,622.95
Year 5 PV (M)14,442.4315,194.4815,977.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)467,719.44492,074.68517,434.10
Equity Value (M)527,552.31553,909.18581,328.42
Shares Outstanding (M)26.5226.5226.52
Fair Value$19,895.25$20,889.23$21,923.27
Upside / Downside199.63%214.60%230.17%

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