Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

ConocoPhillips (0QZA.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas EnergySector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$315.16 - $1,413.64$733.11
Multi-Stage$170.07 - $185.98$177.88
Blended Fair Value$455.49
Current Price$94.59
Upside381.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.44%0.34%2.944.504.621.901.481.211.101.051.012.95
YoY Growth---34.69%-2.50%142.73%28.84%22.07%10.05%4.44%4.15%-65.80%3.94%
Dividend Yield--2.80%3.50%4.65%1.90%2.79%3.93%1.62%1.77%2.03%7.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,830.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,854.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,976.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,766.001,103.75662.25
Cash Retained (M)4,976.004,976.004,976.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,766.00-1,103.75-662.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,210.003,872.254,313.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.401,240.401,240.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.593.123.48
LTM Dividend per Share3.113.113.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.593.123.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.696.236.58
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.34%6.34%7.34%
Fair Value$315.16$733.11$1,413.64
Upside / Downside233.18%675.03%1,394.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,830.009,390.009,985.5210,618.8011,292.2512,008.4112,368.66
Payout Ratio43.65%52.92%62.19%71.46%80.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,854.004,968.946,209.797,588.069,116.1610,807.5711,441.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.34%6.34%7.34%
Year 1 PV (M)4,589.664,633.234,676.80
Year 2 PV (M)5,298.005,399.065,501.08
Year 3 PV (M)5,979.746,151.666,326.84
Year 4 PV (M)6,635.626,891.197,154.08
Year 5 PV (M)7,266.337,617.837,982.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)181,182.14189,946.68199,047.16
Equity Value (M)210,951.50220,639.66230,688.78
Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.401,240.401,240.40
Fair Value$170.07$177.88$185.98
Upside / Downside79.79%88.05%96.62%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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