Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nutrien Ltd. (0NHS.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.60 - $70.38$54.91
Multi-Stage$63.99 - $70.12$67.00
Blended Fair Value$60.96
Current Price$58.24
Upside4.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.73%-0.73%2.172.112.112.142.112.091.950.671.652.46
YoY Growth--2.71%0.10%-1.34%1.46%0.78%7.35%188.48%-59.21%-32.81%5.52%
Dividend Yield--4.36%3.85%2.86%2.06%3.91%6.16%3.65%1.47%3.02%4.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,803.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,059.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)743.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)360.77225.48135.29
Cash Retained (M)743.97743.97743.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-360.77-225.48-135.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)383.20518.49608.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)488.96488.96488.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.781.061.24
LTM Dividend per Share2.172.172.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.781.061.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.953.233.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$42.60$54.91$70.38
Upside / Downside-26.86%-5.71%20.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,803.861,836.611,869.951,903.911,938.471,973.672,032.88
Payout Ratio58.76%65.01%71.25%77.50%83.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,059.881,193.891,332.411,475.581,623.501,776.301,880.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)1,096.621,107.501,118.37
Year 2 PV (M)1,124.141,146.561,169.19
Year 3 PV (M)1,143.501,177.871,212.91
Year 4 PV (M)1,155.631,202.161,250.09
Year 5 PV (M)1,161.381,220.131,281.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,609.2826,904.8428,252.30
Equity Value (M)31,290.5532,759.0534,284.11
Shares Outstanding (M)488.96488.96488.96
Fair Value$63.99$67.00$70.12
Upside / Downside9.88%15.04%20.39%

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