Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Northern Trust Corporation (0K91.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$255.00 - $969.14$429.86
Multi-Stage$173.22 - $189.38$181.15
Blended Fair Value$305.51
Current Price$132.49
Upside130.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.89%7.12%3.093.194.093.213.242.962.322.091.831.79
YoY Growth---3.09%-21.99%27.45%-0.86%9.44%27.51%11.12%14.09%2.30%15.02%
Dividend Yield--3.19%3.62%4.71%2.70%3.09%3.95%2.50%2.07%2.10%2.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,711.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)610.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,100.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)342.20213.88128.33
Cash Retained (M)1,100.501,100.501,100.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-342.20-213.88-128.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)758.30886.63972.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)194.65194.65194.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.904.554.99
LTM Dividend per Share3.143.143.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.904.554.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.037.698.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.01%8.01%8.01%
Growth Rate5.12%6.12%7.12%
Fair Value$255.00$429.86$969.14
Upside / Downside92.47%224.45%631.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,711.001,815.631,926.662,044.482,169.512,302.182,371.25
Payout Ratio35.68%46.54%57.41%68.27%79.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)610.50845.081,106.071,395.821,716.872,071.962,193.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.01%8.01%8.01%
Growth Rate5.12%6.12%7.12%
Year 1 PV (M)775.01782.38789.75
Year 2 PV (M)930.25948.03965.98
Year 3 PV (M)1,076.601,107.621,139.23
Year 4 PV (M)1,214.421,261.301,309.52
Year 5 PV (M)1,344.071,409.231,476.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,377.9929,753.7731,182.40
Equity Value (M)33,718.3335,262.3336,863.78
Shares Outstanding (M)194.65194.65194.65
Fair Value$173.22$181.15$189.38
Upside / Downside30.74%36.73%42.94%

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