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Definitive Analysis

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China Taiping Insurance Holdings Company Limited (0966.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.18 - $127.70$91.59
Multi-Stage$97.85 - $107.48$102.57
Blended Fair Value$97.08
Current Price$15.30
Upside534.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.12%0.00%0.690.260.460.400.300.100.100.120.070.07
YoY Growth--165.05%-43.48%15.00%33.33%200.00%0.00%-14.24%64.86%0.31%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.93%3.87%4.73%3.74%2.15%0.52%0.47%0.40%0.44%0.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,664.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,411.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,253.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,132.961,958.101,174.86
Cash Retained (M)12,253.6612,253.6612,253.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,132.96-1,958.10-1,174.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,120.7010,295.5611,078.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,594.023,594.023,594.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.542.863.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.950.950.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.542.863.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.493.814.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate1.47%2.47%3.47%
Fair Value$67.18$91.59$127.70
Upside / Downside339.07%498.63%734.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,664.8216,051.4316,447.5816,853.5117,269.4517,695.6618,226.53
Payout Ratio21.78%35.42%49.07%62.71%76.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,411.165,685.538,070.0910,568.9013,186.1215,926.1016,859.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate1.47%2.47%3.47%
Year 1 PV (M)5,274.805,326.795,378.77
Year 2 PV (M)6,946.237,083.827,222.75
Year 3 PV (M)8,439.868,691.868,948.82
Year 4 PV (M)9,769.1710,160.0210,562.47
Year 5 PV (M)10,946.7511,496.9112,068.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)310,288.03325,882.33342,097.41
Equity Value (M)351,664.84368,641.72386,279.20
Shares Outstanding (M)3,594.023,594.023,594.02
Fair Value$97.85$102.57$107.48
Upside / Downside539.52%570.40%602.47%

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