Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Sinopec Kantons Holdings Limited (0934.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.86 - $127.95$46.13
Multi-Stage$18.33 - $20.04$19.17
Blended Fair Value$32.65
Current Price$4.55
Upside617.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.79%18.71%0.250.220.200.200.200.180.120.080.060.05
YoY Growth--13.64%10.00%0.00%0.00%11.11%50.00%41.18%41.67%20.00%11.11%
Dividend Yield--5.10%6.61%6.78%6.54%7.41%5.49%3.46%1.68%1.69%1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,013.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,168.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)845.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)402.70251.69151.01
Cash Retained (M)845.01845.01845.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-402.70-251.69-151.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)442.31593.32693.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,486.162,486.162,486.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.240.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.240.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate4.79%5.79%6.79%
Fair Value$25.86$46.13$127.95
Upside / Downside468.40%913.78%2,712.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,013.502,130.102,253.452,383.942,521.982,668.022,748.06
Payout Ratio58.03%64.43%70.82%77.21%83.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,168.501,372.341,595.891,840.712,108.542,401.222,541.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate4.79%5.79%6.79%
Year 1 PV (M)1,265.521,277.601,289.68
Year 2 PV (M)1,357.111,383.131,409.41
Year 3 PV (M)1,443.461,485.181,527.70
Year 4 PV (M)1,524.781,583.821,644.56
Year 5 PV (M)1,601.271,679.141,760.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,386.1040,252.9542,191.74
Equity Value (M)45,578.2447,661.8349,823.10
Shares Outstanding (M)2,486.162,486.162,486.16
Fair Value$18.33$19.17$20.04
Upside / Downside302.92%321.34%340.44%

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