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Definitive Analysis

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VSTECS Holdings Limited (0856.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$134.62 - $295.66$277.08
Multi-Stage$44.76 - $48.98$46.83
Blended Fair Value$161.95
Current Price$7.77
Upside1,984.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.82%11.94%0.260.180.280.230.170.160.150.130.130.13
YoY Growth--49.71%-37.22%22.73%32.06%9.73%2.66%19.28%0.03%0.19%50.60%
Dividend Yield--5.07%4.00%6.23%3.13%2.72%3.94%4.05%2.78%4.73%6.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,082.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)983.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,098.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)416.48260.30156.18
Cash Retained (M)1,098.751,098.751,098.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-416.48-260.30-156.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)682.27838.45942.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,400.721,400.721,400.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.600.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.600.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$134.62$277.08$295.66
Upside / Downside1,632.61%3,465.99%3,705.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,082.402,217.762,361.912,515.442,678.942,853.072,938.66
Payout Ratio47.24%55.79%64.34%72.89%81.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)983.661,237.271,519.701,833.622,181.932,567.772,718.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,151.581,162.501,173.41
Year 2 PV (M)1,316.491,341.571,366.88
Year 3 PV (M)1,478.431,520.871,564.11
Year 4 PV (M)1,637.431,700.401,765.17
Year 5 PV (M)1,793.531,880.151,970.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,321.2357,993.2760,767.57
Equity Value (M)62,698.6965,598.7668,607.25
Shares Outstanding (M)1,400.721,400.721,400.72
Fair Value$44.76$46.83$48.98
Upside / Downside476.08%502.73%530.37%

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