Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Water Affairs Group Limited (0855.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.15 - $214.94$107.79
Multi-Stage$32.52 - $35.60$34.03
Blended Fair Value$70.91
Current Price$6.70
Upside958.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.02%18.29%0.280.340.180.320.300.290.270.230.080.07
YoY Growth---17.65%88.89%-43.75%6.14%2.27%10.77%13.39%184.33%26.64%24.86%
Dividend Yield--4.18%6.77%2.81%3.73%4.74%5.07%3.26%2.94%1.61%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,782.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,012.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)770.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)356.46222.79133.67
Cash Retained (M)770.27770.27770.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-356.46-222.79-133.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)413.81547.48636.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,632.061,632.061,632.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.961.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Fair Value$47.15$107.79$214.94
Upside / Downside603.72%1,508.80%3,108.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,782.311,878.351,979.572,086.252,198.672,317.152,386.66
Payout Ratio56.78%63.43%70.07%76.71%83.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,012.041,191.361,387.081,600.421,832.732,085.432,207.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)1,109.881,120.511,131.15
Year 2 PV (M)1,203.831,227.001,250.40
Year 3 PV (M)1,293.991,331.541,369.80
Year 4 PV (M)1,380.471,434.141,489.35
Year 5 PV (M)1,463.381,534.831,609.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,619.3248,895.4851,259.69
Equity Value (M)53,070.8755,543.5058,109.43
Shares Outstanding (M)1,632.061,632.061,632.06
Fair Value$32.52$34.03$35.60
Upside / Downside385.34%407.95%431.42%

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