Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Lee & Man Chemical Company Limited (0746.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.89 - $28.69$21.23
Multi-Stage$27.70 - $30.44$29.04
Blended Fair Value$25.14
Current Price$3.77
Upside566.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.23%7.18%0.280.220.700.420.220.330.430.140.100.15
YoY Growth--27.26%-68.57%64.71%88.89%-31.82%-23.26%207.14%40.00%-33.33%7.14%
Dividend Yield--7.48%7.34%10.74%5.37%6.45%9.48%7.94%2.45%4.10%6.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)941.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)334.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)607.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)188.33117.7170.62
Cash Retained (M)607.55607.55607.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-188.33-117.71-70.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)419.22489.85536.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)827.52827.52827.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.590.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.590.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate0.59%1.59%2.59%
Fair Value$15.89$21.23$28.69
Upside / Downside321.41%463.21%661.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)941.65956.63971.85987.301,003.011,018.961,049.53
Payout Ratio35.48%46.38%57.29%68.19%79.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)334.10443.72556.75673.26793.34917.06970.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate0.59%1.59%2.59%
Year 1 PV (M)413.11417.21421.32
Year 2 PV (M)482.57492.21501.95
Year 3 PV (M)543.29559.65576.34
Year 4 PV (M)596.01620.06644.84
Year 5 PV (M)641.42673.94707.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,242.0221,268.3922,335.97
Equity Value (M)22,918.4124,031.4625,188.18
Shares Outstanding (M)827.52827.52827.52
Fair Value$27.70$29.04$30.44
Upside / Downside634.62%670.30%707.38%

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