Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TravelSky Technology Limited (0696.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.18 - $15.02$12.50
Multi-Stage$14.17 - $15.55$14.85
Blended Fair Value$13.67
Current Price$9.58
Upside42.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.26%2.10%0.170.060.060.020.290.300.260.220.170.13
YoY Growth--203.16%1.57%177.95%-93.00%-2.88%15.23%15.71%33.73%24.81%-5.00%
Dividend Yield--1.76%0.46%0.38%0.19%1.83%1.74%1.46%1.10%1.14%1.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,720.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)676.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,043.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)744.10465.06279.04
Cash Retained (M)3,043.623,043.623,043.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-744.10-465.06-279.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,299.522,578.562,764.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,926.212,926.212,926.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.790.880.94
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.790.880.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.111.18
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate-0.33%0.67%1.67%
Fair Value$10.18$12.50$15.02
Upside / Downside6.25%30.48%56.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,720.493,745.433,770.543,795.823,821.263,846.883,962.28
Payout Ratio18.19%32.55%46.92%61.28%75.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)676.871,219.301,768.982,325.972,890.353,462.193,665.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate-0.33%0.67%1.67%
Year 1 PV (M)1,101.151,112.201,123.25
Year 2 PV (M)1,442.761,471.851,501.24
Year 3 PV (M)1,713.211,765.291,818.42
Year 4 PV (M)1,922.612,000.942,081.63
Year 5 PV (M)2,079.822,186.272,297.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,208.7434,908.4436,677.02
Equity Value (M)41,468.2943,444.9945,498.61
Shares Outstanding (M)2,926.212,926.212,926.21
Fair Value$14.17$14.85$15.55
Upside / Downside47.93%54.98%62.30%

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