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Definitive Analysis

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Fufeng Group Limited (0546.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$193.95 - $450.66$422.33
Multi-Stage$66.40 - $72.69$69.49
Blended Fair Value$245.91
Current Price$6.29
Upside3,809.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.64%26.49%0.480.510.430.120.130.290.130.150.040.06
YoY Growth---5.10%19.00%268.77%-7.71%-56.86%130.04%-13.20%297.88%-39.40%31.37%
Dividend Yield--9.39%12.58%10.22%5.30%5.16%9.53%4.37%3.41%1.08%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,710.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,754.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,956.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,142.07713.79428.28
Cash Retained (M)3,956.283,956.283,956.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,142.07-713.79-428.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,814.213,242.483,528.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,519.972,519.972,519.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.291.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.291.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.811.982.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$193.95$422.33$450.66
Upside / Downside2,983.49%6,614.34%7,064.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,710.356,081.526,476.826,897.817,346.177,823.678,058.38
Payout Ratio30.72%42.57%54.43%66.29%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,754.072,589.143,525.364,572.355,740.557,041.307,454.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,408.602,431.432,454.26
Year 2 PV (M)3,050.873,108.983,167.64
Year 3 PV (M)3,681.033,786.703,894.37
Year 4 PV (M)4,299.264,464.594,634.66
Year 5 PV (M)4,905.725,142.675,388.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)148,970.79156,166.13163,636.86
Equity Value (M)167,316.26175,100.50183,176.47
Shares Outstanding (M)2,519.972,519.972,519.97
Fair Value$66.40$69.49$72.69
Upside / Downside955.58%1,004.69%1,055.64%

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