Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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COSCO SHIPPING International (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. (0517.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$83.11 - $197.28$184.88
Multi-Stage$30.01 - $32.79$31.37
Blended Fair Value$108.13
Current Price$5.52
Upside1,858.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.33%20.69%0.440.340.210.270.170.170.180.170.140.18
YoY Growth--29.26%62.76%-21.57%59.38%0.00%-5.88%3.03%26.92%-23.53%164.81%
Dividend Yield--10.33%10.91%8.30%11.20%7.06%8.16%6.61%5.62%3.83%4.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,454.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,290.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)164.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)290.84181.77109.06
Cash Retained (M)164.14164.14164.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-290.84-181.77-109.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)-126.70-17.6455.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,465.971,465.971,465.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.010.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.880.880.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.010.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$83.11$184.88$197.28
Upside / Downside1,405.65%3,249.22%3,473.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,454.191,548.711,649.381,756.591,870.771,992.372,052.14
Payout Ratio88.71%88.97%89.23%89.49%89.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,290.051,377.891,471.701,571.891,678.871,793.131,898.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,281.561,293.711,305.86
Year 2 PV (M)1,273.111,297.361,321.84
Year 3 PV (M)1,264.711,301.021,338.01
Year 4 PV (M)1,256.351,304.671,354.36
Year 5 PV (M)1,248.041,308.321,370.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,669.2339,488.6741,377.74
Equity Value (M)43,993.0145,993.7448,068.72
Shares Outstanding (M)1,465.971,465.971,465.97
Fair Value$30.01$31.37$32.79
Upside / Downside443.65%468.37%494.02%

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