Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Enterprises Water Group Limited (0371.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.43 - $3.55$2.97
Multi-Stage$6.58 - $7.25$6.91
Blended Fair Value$4.94
Current Price$2.16
Upside128.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.48%11.24%0.140.160.130.170.160.190.160.120.100.08
YoY Growth---8.28%15.78%-20.06%4.15%-14.69%18.92%30.38%28.13%19.46%62.04%
Dividend Yield--5.70%8.86%6.74%5.56%5.19%4.81%4.00%1.97%1.85%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,285.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,102.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,182.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)657.05410.66246.39
Cash Retained (M)1,182.631,182.631,182.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-657.05-410.66-246.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)525.58771.98936.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,034.5010,034.5010,034.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-4.03%-3.03%-2.03%
Fair Value$2.43$2.97$3.55
Upside / Downside12.46%37.58%64.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,285.263,185.873,089.482,996.022,905.382,817.482,902.00
Payout Ratio64.00%69.20%74.40%79.60%84.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,102.632,204.672,298.612,384.852,463.772,535.732,684.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-4.03%-3.03%-2.03%
Year 1 PV (M)2,052.182,073.562,094.94
Year 2 PV (M)1,991.632,033.352,075.50
Year 3 PV (M)1,923.421,984.182,046.19
Year 4 PV (M)1,849.631,927.932,008.69
Year 5 PV (M)1,771.981,866.241,964.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)56,450.7559,453.6062,582.89
Equity Value (M)66,039.5969,338.8572,772.69
Shares Outstanding (M)10,034.5010,034.5010,034.50
Fair Value$6.58$6.91$7.25
Upside / Downside204.69%219.91%235.75%

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