Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Incheon City Gas Co., Ltd. (034590.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56,053.66 - $97,335.85$73,753.00
Multi-Stage$117,707.85 - $129,565.95$123,521.37
Blended Fair Value$98,637.18
Current Price$26,050.00
Upside278.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.96%1,250.441,250.441,250.441,250.441,250.441,250.441,250.441,250.441,250.441,250.44
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%9.99%
Dividend Yield--5.12%4.93%4.72%4.70%4.85%5.32%4.28%4.18%4.14%4.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,059.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,152.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,907.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,611.942,257.461,354.48
Cash Retained (M)12,907.2212,907.2212,907.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,611.94-2,257.46-1,354.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,295.2710,649.7511,552.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.124.124.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,255.832,584.542,803.69
LTM Dividend per Share1,250.441,250.441,250.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,255.832,584.542,803.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend3,506.273,834.984,054.12
WACC / Discount Rate5.91%5.91%5.91%
Growth Rate-0.33%0.67%1.67%
Fair Value$56,053.66$73,753.00$97,335.85
Upside / Downside115.18%183.12%273.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,059.7218,181.4518,304.0118,427.3918,551.6118,676.6619,236.96
Payout Ratio28.53%40.82%53.12%65.41%77.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,152.507,422.459,722.7612,053.7514,415.7216,808.9917,794.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.91%5.91%5.91%
Growth Rate-0.33%0.67%1.67%
Year 1 PV (M)6,938.727,008.337,077.95
Year 2 PV (M)8,496.778,668.128,841.17
Year 3 PV (M)9,847.3310,146.7010,452.08
Year 4 PV (M)11,009.4411,457.9511,920.02
Year 5 PV (M)12,000.5912,614.7813,253.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)436,728.76459,080.62482,338.43
Equity Value (M)485,021.60508,976.50533,883.52
Shares Outstanding (M)4.124.124.12
Fair Value$117,707.85$123,521.37$129,565.95
Upside / Downside351.85%374.17%397.37%

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